Investigation the influence of exchange rate channel of transmission mechanism on the ukrainian economy real sector
Abstract
Purpose and subject of researchFor the modern economic model the transformation of the tradition monetary transmission mechanism is relevant that demands in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of the monetary channels and the determination of the optimal structure of the transmission mechanism especially for the developing countries.The integrated assessment of the changes in the Ukrainian monetary transmission mechanism, in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of the separate channels and the investigation of the peculiarity of the impulses transmission by the exchange rate channel in short run and long run for Ukrainian economy is the main object of this study.Research methodologyA theoretical and empirical framework is proposed based on the monetary theory, including the new features of the monetary transmission mechanism and the time series analysis with vector error correction models.Value resultsThe statistical analysis, analysis of the impulse responsible functions and the variance decomposition on the base of the elaborated vector error correction model for the exchange rate channel had allowed to estimate its influence on the real sector of the Ukrainian economy in short run and long run and empirically improve the hypotheses about special feature of this channel for Ukraine. The present study provides a starting-point for further research in the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism channels for the developed and developing countries for the purpose of the determination of the effective directions of the monetary policy for the stimulation of the economic growth.ConclusionsThe framework has proven to be useful to show the specific and the dominant role of the exchange rate channel for the Ukrainian economy and non-significant function of the other channels for the Ukraine which demands not only of the improvement of the exchange rate policy but also the transformation of the structure of the Ukrainian monetary transmission mechanism.Key words: exchange rate channel, transmission mechanism, economy real sector, non-significant function.References
Geyets V.M., Skripnichenko M.I., Sokolik M.M. and others, 1998. The Sector forecasting macroeconomic models. Economist, (5), pp. 58-67.
Levitskiy S.I., Lysenko Y.G., Filipoff A.V. and others, 2009. Models of project management in the unstable economic environment. 354 p. – (Serie:.Management of the viable systems)
Lukianenko I.G., Gorodnichenko Y.O., 2002. The Modern econometrics methods in finance. Textbook, 352 p.
Lukianenko I.G., 2003. Dynamic macroeconometrics models. The new conceptual approach, 50 p..
Lukianenko I.G., Semko R.B., 2012. The forecasting of the effects of the economic policy on the base of the General equilibrium model. Economics Actual Problems, (1), pp. 303-319.
Mishenko V.I., Somik A.V., Lisenko R.S.,2010. The features of the monetary transmission mechanism in the crisis conditions. Scientific research center of NBU, 96p.
Mishenko V.I., Petrik O.I., Somik A.V., Lisenko R.S., 2008. Monetary transmission mechanism in Ukraine. Scientific research center of NBU, 144 p.
Petrik O.I., 2007. History of the monetary development in Ukraine. Bulletin of the national bank of Ukraine, (1), pp. 2-30
Pogorelko N.P., Onishenko O.V., 2010. The formation of the monetary transmission mechanism within the percent rate channel for the support of the real economic growth. The communal services of the cities, pp. 395-404.
Somik A., 2010. The characteristics of the action of the monetary transmission mechanism during the crisis period. Credit and percent rate channels. Bulletin of the national bank of Ukraine, (10), pp.24-32
Somik A., 2010. The characteristics of the action of the monetary transmission mechanism during the crisis period. Exchange rate and expectation channels.. Bulletin of the national bank of Ukraine, (11), pp. 21-27.
Chernichko T.V., 2008. The principal channels of the Ukrainian model of the monetary transmission mechanism. National forestry engineering university. Scientific Bulletin.,18(1), pp.211 Access:http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/portal/ chem_biol/nvnltu/18_1/18_1_Czernyczko_1.pdf
Sherbakova O.,2011.Prospects of the monetary policy on the stage of the post crisis restoration of the Ukrainian economy. Bulletin of the national bank of Ukraine, (8), pp. 4-8.
Campa J.M., Goldberg L.S., 2002. Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon? NBER Working Paper, № 8934, 36 p.
Darvas Z., 2001. Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Real Exchange Rate in EU Candidate Countries. Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank, №10, 76 p.
Frankel J.A., Parsley D.C., Wei S.J., 2005. Slow pass-through around the world: a new import for developing countries. NBER Working Paper, № 11199, 51 p.
MacDonald R., Balazs E., 2005. Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Surveying the Surveyable. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 277-327.
McCarthy J., 1999. Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies. BIS Working Paper, № 79, 52p.
Mishra P., Montiel P. J., Spilimbergo A. , 2010. Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries. International Monetary Fund : Research Department and European Department, 43 p.
Copyright (c) 2014 Irina Lukianenko
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
All rights reserved for authors with articles of printed version of ISJ "Economic Cybernetics" (ISSN 2077-8031).
Copyrights of published works are retained by the author(s) but with first publication rights granted to Donetsk National University. Further, in case of any plagiarism issue author(s) hold(s) complete liability.
Online version of ISJ "Economic Cybernetics" (ISSN 2312-5837) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://ec.projects-manager.com.
